Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-119/-121).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (6.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in the league (141 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to earn 1.6 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Jared Goff has averaged just 4.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (14th percentile).
Jared Goff's running efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 3.68 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 rate last year.

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