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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 243.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 249.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

Jared Goff's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.3% to 72.7%.

Jared Goff's passing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 8.89 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.53 figure last season.

This year, the porous Chicago Bears defense has given up the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a colossal 8.29 yards.

The Chicago Bears defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.49 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.

When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Chicago's safety corps has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the league.

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