Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 251.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 259.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 251.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has been among the best QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 256.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.1% to 69.1%.
Jared Goff has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 7.41 yards-per-target while grading out in the 85th percentile.
The Packers pass defense has shown poor efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.20 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The model projects Jared Goff to attempt 33.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.