Jared Goff Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 37.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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