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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Completions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jared Goff Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

Jared Goff's 72.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a meaningful improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 66.3% figure.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football vs. the Jaguars defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

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