Jared Goff Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
Jared Goff's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.1% to 68.6%.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This year, the daunting Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a paltry 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

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