Jared Goff Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Completions

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+110/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Jared Goff's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 58.9%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the league vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (66.7%).