Jared Goff Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Completions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football versus the New York Jets defense this year (66.8%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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