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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Carries
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to run on 46.6% of their chances: the 8th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The projections expect Jared Goff to earn 2.1 carries in this week's game, on average: the 4th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

Jared Goff is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for a mere 4.9% of his team's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 21st percentile among QBs.

The Bears safeties rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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