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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jared Goff Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

This week, Jared Goff is predicted by the model to total the 11th-fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 1.8.

Comprising a mere 2.9% of his team's run game usage this year (13th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Jared Goff's immobility makes him no threat with his legs.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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