JaMycal Hasty Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

JaMycal Hasty

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

JaMycal Hasty Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jamycal Hasty has been on the field for 18.6% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 22nd percentile among RBs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.