JaMycal Hasty Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

reorder

NFL · Player Props

JaMycal Hasty

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

JaMycal Hasty Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the league (87.6%) versus running backs this year (87.6%).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Jamycal Hasty's 6.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 13.2.
Jamycal Hasty's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 85.4% to 76.5%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.