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Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

Jameson Williams has been used less as a potential target this season (86.0% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (50.1%).

Jameson Williams's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last season's 1.9 rate.

Jameson Williams's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 55.1% to 61.1%.

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Chicago's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

This year, the imposing Bears defense has allowed a mere 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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