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Jameson Williams

Jameson Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

Jameson Williams has been less involved as a potential target this season (88.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (50.1%).

Jameson Williams's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 55.1% to 58.3%.

This year, the poor Jaguars pass defense has yielded a whopping 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 8th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

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