Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jameson Williams's 45.8% Route% this season signifies an impressive progression in his passing attack usage over last season's 16.4% figure.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Favors Under
This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
Jameson Williams comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, catching just 51.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among wideouts
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.7%) versus wideouts this year (60.7%).