Jameson Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
While Jameson Williams has received 4.0% of his team's targets in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Detroit's offense in this week's game at 12.0%.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.1%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (71.1%).

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
Jameson Williams has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league last year, averaging a measly 4.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 2nd percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the league.