Jameson Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jameson Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
Jameson Williams has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (38.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (16.4%).
Jameson Williams has compiled far more air yards this season (49.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game).

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jameson Williams comes in as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 47.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 16th percentile among wideouts
With a subpar 4.5 adjusted yards per target (14th percentile) this year, Jameson Williams places among the weakest WRs in the game in the NFL.

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