James Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+131/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
James Robinson has picked up 61.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (80th percentile).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this week (41.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.1% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The Indianapolis Colts defense owns the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.72 yards-per-carry.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.