James Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to earn 11.7 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
James Robinson has picked up 55.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (85th percentile).
James Robinson's rushing effectiveness (4.68 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (80th percentile among RBs).
James Robinson has been among the best RBs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.34 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (46.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (58.0% in games he has played).