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James Robinson

James Robinson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

James Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

James Robinson has been a much smaller part of his offense's running game this season (43.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (57.8%).

The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

James Robinson has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.58 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 12th percentile.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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