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James Robinson

James Robinson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-306).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +214 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +204.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

James Robinson has run for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (96th percentile).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (43.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.5% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least TDs in football (0.60 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

More James Robinson Player Props

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