James Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 44.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
James Robinson has garnered 61.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
James Robinson has rushed for 0.75 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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