James Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
James Robinson's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 90.3%.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
James Robinson's 7.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 14.5.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.