James Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

James Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
James Robinson's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 90.3%.
The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, yielding 6.67 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in football.
James Robinson has totaled a paltry -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among RBs.
James Robinson's 7.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 14.5.

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