James Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

reorder

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+115/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
James Robinson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.9% to 89.4%.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (48.0) to RBs this year.

Favors Under

James Robinson has totaled a measly -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
James Robinson's 7.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 14.5.
James Robinson has totaled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
James Robinson's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, compiling just 5.25 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.00 mark last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.