James Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to garner 14.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
James Robinson has received 60.9% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the worst collection of DTs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 58.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.

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