James Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+103/-143).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to accumulate 13.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
James Robinson has garnered 65.1% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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