James Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to earn 11.7 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (46.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (58.0% in games he has played).