James Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

James Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
James Robinson has been a much smaller part of his offense's running game this season (43.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (57.8%).
The New York Jets offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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