James Proche Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

NFL · Player Props

James Proche

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

James Proche Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+363/-724).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +401 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +363.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
James Proche has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 78.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (70.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.9%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
James Proche has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 2.9% this year, which puts him in the 25th percentile among wideouts.