James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

James Cook has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (52.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
James Cook's 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a meaningful improvement in his running ability over last season's 32.0 figure.
This year, the strong Bengals run defense has given up a mere 5.00 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 29th-smallest rate in the league.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Cincinnati's LB corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.
James Cook's 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a noteworthy drop-off in his running prowess over last season's 5.8 mark.

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