James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:37 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
Our trusted projections expect James Cook to notch 12.8 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
James Cook has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this year (54.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.1%).
James Cook's 75.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year illustrates a an impressive progression in his rushing talent over last year's 32.0 rate.
James Cook's rushing efficiency (5.34 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (84th percentile when it comes to RBs).

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills as the 9th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
Since the start of last season, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been gouged for a whopping 4.30 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 27th-largest rate in the league.

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