James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
James Cook's rushing efficiency (5.65 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (85th percentile among RBs).
James Cook has been more successful in generating extra rushing yardage this year, accumulating 4.38 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.02 rate last year.
The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 39.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 110 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.

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