James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
After accounting for 19.1% of his team's rush attempts last year, James Cook has been called on more in the run game this year, now taking on 51.0%.
James Cook's 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a meaningful progression in his rushing prowess over last season's 32.0 rate.
This year, the deficient Broncos run defense has conceded a staggering 156.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.
James Cook's running efficiency has diminished this season, notching a measly 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.79 rate last season.

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