James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the NFL (141 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
James Cook has played on 13.0% of his offense's snaps this year, ranking him in the 10th percentile among RBs.