James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-101/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
James Cook's running effectiveness (5.82 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (94th percentile among RBs).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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