James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.8% in games he has played).
James Cook's ground efficiency (5.82 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (94th percentile among running backs).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

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