James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
James Cook's ground effectiveness (5.89 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (94th percentile among running backs).
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.15 yards-per-carry.

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