James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+110/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

James Cook's rushing efficiency (5.88 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (94th percentile among running backs).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

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