James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
James Cook's ground efficiency (5.43 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (90th percentile among RBs).
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-most yards in the league (144 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 29.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.

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