James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-145/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
James Cook's running efficiency (5.33 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (87th percentile among RBs).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in football (just 107 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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