James Cook Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
James Cook's ground efficiency (6.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (94th percentile among running backs).
James Cook has been among the best running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 3.68 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (155 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
James Cook has played on 16.6% of his team's snaps this year, putting him in the 18th percentile among running backs.

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