James Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-975).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -946 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -975.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 35.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
James Cook has received a lowly 0.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 1st percentile among running backs.

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