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James Cook

James Cook Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

James Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+281/-463).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -434 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -463.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (26.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.8% red zone run rate.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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