James Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+474/-1138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -771 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 38.2% red zone run rate.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-least touchdowns in football (0.36 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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