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James Cook

James Cook Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

James Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-591).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -572 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -591.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects James Cook to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone this week (17.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most TDs in football (1.60 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year.

The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 4th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 38.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.

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