James Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 61.2% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
James Cook's 45.6% Route% this season conveys a significant improvement in his passing offense usage over last season's 19.1% figure.
In this contest, James Cook is forecasted by the model to land in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.4 targets.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
James Cook's 2.8 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 1.3 figure.

Favors Under

To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.0 per game) this year.

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