James Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects James Cook to garner 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
James Cook has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs, catching a mere 63.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 3rd percentile.

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