James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (35.3 per game) since the start of last season.
This week, James Cook is expected by the projection model to finish in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.1 targets.
James Cook has put up a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
James Cook's 16.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in football: 81st percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 123.1 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.