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James Cook

James Cook Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see only 132.5 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

In this week's game, James Cook is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 92nd percentile among RBs with 2.8 targets.

James Cook has compiled a colossal 1.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (just 55.4 per game on average).

James Cook's 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year represents a meaningful regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 27.0 figure.

James Cook's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, averaging just 6.87 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.58 rate last year.

This year, the fierce Chiefs defense has surrendered a measly 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-fewest in football.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.4%) vs. running backs this year (76.4%).

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